| || || Water-supply -- Environmental aspects -- Fiji -- Lautoka|
| || || Climate change impacts on urban water security : a case study of the Nadi /Lautoka urban areas, Viti Levu, Fiji|
Author: Yuen, Linda B. K.
Institution: University of the South Pacific.
Subject: Water-supply -- Environmental aspects -- Fiji -- Nadi , Water-supply -- Environmental aspects -- Fiji -- Lautoka , Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Fiji -- Nadi , Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Fiji -- Lautoka
Call No.: pac TD 324 .F5 Y83 2013
Copyright:Under 10% of this thesis may be copied without the authors written permission
Abstract: Fiji’s abundant annual rainfall is unevenly distributed in time and space. Fiji’s changing climate, compounded with rapid urban development and growth of the tourism industry in the Pacific have added pressure to the public water supply systems rendering them inadequate, to various degrees, to meet the population’s water needs. This study incorporates a range of rainfall projections from the IPCC AR4 climate model runs to evaluate the security of the Nadi/Lautoka public water supply, an urban centre with a combined population of 94,504 people. The study evaluated the projected water budget of the primary public water source for Nadi and Lautoka: Vaturu Reservoir. The water budget builds on rainfall projections from the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios obtained from the PCCSP Pacific Climate Futures online tool (www.pacificclimatefutures.net) and a projected population growth rate of 0.8% established during Fiji’s latest census in 2007. The 0.8% growth rate bracketed a low growth rate of 0.4% and high growth rate of 1.6% per year. A modified version of the PICPP’s Vaturu Water Balance Model was used to assess the effects of changing rainfall and population on the reliability of the water supply system. Population growth and the resulting water demand had a greater impact on water supply than projected changes in rainfall. With no change in population, the effect of projected rainfall resulted in water supply reliability of 100% or very close to it. By contrast, with no change in projected rainfall, even the low population growth scenario of 0.4% resulted in decreasing reliability of water supply throughout the next 80 years. For the high population growth scenario of 1.6%, the Vaturu water supply met water demand 77% of the time by 2055 and only 43.6% of the time by 2090, assuming constant reservoir capacity. This study demonstrates that for Fiji, a representative Pacific small island country, population growth is a more important determinant of the reliability of a key urban centre water supply than future rainfall